Democrats enjoy a slight advantage over their Republican challengers in three key Senate races in Ohio, Florida and Virginia, according to three new NBC-Marist polls released Thursday.

Democrats lead by varying margins in a series of contests that could determine whether Republicans are able to achieve the net-gain of four seats they need to retake control of the Senate if President Barack Obama wins re-election; they need to pick up just three seats if the Democratic incumbent loses.

A separate poll shows a virtually tied race in a fourth state, Massachusetts, that the GOP is battling to hold in November.

Obama edges Romney in 3 key battleground states

In Ohio, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leads his Republican opponent, say Treasurer Josh Mandel, by a 14-point margin among registered voters. Fifty-one percent of registered voters stated they would re-elect Brown if the election were held today, versus 37 percent who would select Mandel; 12 percent were undecided.

In Virginia, former governor and Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine leads former Republican Sen. George Allen, 49 percent to 43 percent, among registered voters.

The Daily Rundown’s Chuck Todd reports on polls in three says – Florida, Virginia and Ohio where President Barack Obama has a slight lead.

And in Florida, 46 percent of registered voters prefer Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson to 42 percent who stated they would vote for Republican Rep. Connie Mack.

PDFs: Ohio | Virginia | Florida

The Florida, Ohio, and Virginia polls were conducted by Marist for NBC News between May 17-20. Each sample of registered voters has a 3 percent margin of error.

Democrats are tasked with defending 23 seats in this year’s elections, many of which were won in 2006 in swing or Republican-leaning states. The three says in the NBC-Marist polls are also battleground says in the presidential election, and are expected to be heavily contested by both the Obama and Mitt Romney campaigns.

First Thoughts: Economic pessimism returns

Republicans argue that the variety of says where Democrats must play defense gives the GOP a number of paths toward capturing the majority, but the GOP’s once-heady prospects for winning the upper chamber have been tempered by recruiting flameouts and some degree of Democratic resurgence.

The tightening battle for control of the Senate has also raised the pressure on Republicans to defend each of the seats they currently possess. For that reason, there is arguably no more highly-scrutinized Senate race than the one in Massachusetts, where Republican Scott Brown is working to hold onto his seat in a deeply-Democratic state.

A Suffolk University poll released late Wednesday night showed Brown’s battle against Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren, a favorite candidate of liberal activists, locked in a virtual tie.

Forty-eight percent of likely voters would elect Brown, who first won office in a Jan. 2010 special election to fill the seat of the late Democratic Sen. Edward Kennedy, to a full term. Forty-seven percent of Massachusetts voters stated they would send Warren, a former Wall Street watchdog, to the Senate.

That race has been particularly hard-fought, involving most recently a controversy involving instances in Warren’s career when she listed herself as having Native American heritage. But the Suffolk poll found that most voters in the Bay State did not view the controversy as a significant story; likewise, Suffolk’s numbers found that they did not view a vote for Brown as akin to a vote for Wall Street.

The Suffolk poll, conducted between May 20-22, has a 4 percent margin of error.

source : nbcpolitics.msnbc.msn.com

President Barack Obama’s most glaring vulnerabilities this election cycle are laid bare in the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, in which Americans state the incumbent commander in chief has either made no impact on pocketbook issues – or even made them worse.

More respondents stated Obama made worse the budget deficit (47 percent), health care (43 percent), and the partisan divide in politics (39 percent) than those who stated the president had improved – or at least made no difference – upon them during his first term in office.

Those are numbers that help explain the Romney campaign’s nearly singular focus on the economy in prosecuting his case against Obama.

The Daily Rundown’s Chuck Todd shares details from the latest NBC News/WSJ poll.

“What these polls are telling us is that we have a close race, and the number one issue on people’s mind is the economy,” stated an adviser to the former Massachusetts governor. “If you look at the president’s performance on that No. 1 issue, he is getting failing grades across the board.”

There are issues on which the president has an advantage – Americans view Obama as having improved the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. auto industry, and protections for the middle class. And more respondents (32 percent) in the NBC/WSJ poll stated they’re quite or extremely confident that the Democrat’s policies would improve the economy than the 19 percent who stated the same for his Republican rival.

But Obama faces serious and stubborn frustration toward his handling of the economy. The number of Americans who stated they anticipate the economy to improve over the next year dipped slightly, and 50 percent of poll-takers stated that last month’s jobs report – which showed the economy added 115,000 jobs in April – was no reason for optimism.

Romney’s challenge, though, lies in convincing voters that he would represent an improvement over Obama.

First Thoughts: Economic pessimism is back

The new poll data show that the private sector resume that Romney frequently cites on the campaign trail is an asset, especially as it relates to how voters anticipate the Bain Capital co-founder to turn around the economy and close the budget deficit.

It also explains why the Obama campaign has launched a full-fledged attack on Romney’s business experience, in hopes of diminishing his advantage – for now – versus the president on those pocketbook issues.

“It depends how credible of a messenger Romney really is. Do people think that his work at Bain made life better for the average people?” stated former Texas Rep. Martin Frost, a veteran Democratic campaigner. “The public probably doesn’t know too much about Romney’s record in the private sector, but my bet is they will know a whole lot more by the end of the election.”

Thirty-five percent of Americans stated Romney’s private sector career at Bain Capital is a major advantage in improving job creation; another 24 percent stated it’s a minor advantage. A combined 59 percent stated Romney’s background was an advantage in working to reduce the federal budget deficit.

The latest Wall Street Journal/Washington Post poll shows that presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s biggest strength is his business background, which is viewed as a key advantage to improving the economy. NBC’s Chuck Todd reports.

(Voters’ impression of Romney’s business background is still positive, though less so, when it comes to ensuring corporations pay their fair share of taxes, protecting workers’ rights, and enforcing environmental standards for businesses.)

The data lay the groundwork for the summertime campaign battles, which Obama himself helped launch this week, when he openly called into question Romney’s qualifications to be president.

NBC/WSJ poll: Obama, Romney locked in tight contest

“The reason this is relevant to the campaign is because my opponent, Gov. Romney, his main calling card for why he thinks he should be president is his business expertise,” Obama stated at a press conference in Chicago. “And when you’re president, as opposed to the head of a private equity firm, then your job is not simply to maximize profits. Your job is to figure out how everybody in the country has a fair shot.”

Obama’s aggressive tack is directed toward erasing Romney’s advantage when it comes to the economy, what may prove to be the trump card should the former Massachusetts governor end up winning in November. For instance, 41 percent of poll respondents stated they’re “not at all” confident that Obama has the right policies to improve the economy (36 percent stated the same for Romney).

“What the Obama campaign wants to do is to continue focusing on issues that are not important to the overall anxieties that they have in terms of the economy right now,” stated the Romney adviser. “They want to offer a distorted version of the governor’s business background, and we see it as an opportunity to remind the American people of the importance of free enterprise.”

But at the same time, more Americans, 32 percent, stated that they’re quite or very confident in Obama’s proposals (versus 19 percent who stated that of Romney). Four in 10 voters stated they’re “somewhat confident” in Romney’s proposals, a number that could prove fluid as the president campaign works to define “Romney Economics” for the general public.

Those variables could all be shaken by factors outside of either campaign’s control, though. Frost expressed particular worry about the effect of a European backslide on the U.S. stock market – a tangible symbol that could temper voters’ thoughts toward Obama. “The economic situation is still pretty volatile. The numbers could coming out of Europe could really put a damper on things,” he said. “To the extent the stock market reacts adversely, that is a problem. If the stock market just kind of muddles through, it doesn’t really affect the average person.”

source : nbcpolitics.msnbc.msn.com

Related Topics: Obama administration

source : www.realclearpolitics.com

Two weeks after President Obama announced he supports gay marriage, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows that his announcement — politically — looks to be a wash.

President Barack Obama gestures upon arriving at Joplin Regional Airport aboard Air Force One in Missouri.

In the poll, a combined 17 percent state it makes them “much more likely” or “somewhat more likely” they will vote for him. That’s compared with a combined 20 percent who state the announcement will make them more likely to vote for Mitt Romney, who opposes gay marriage.

Perhaps more importantly, 62 percent state the president’s support for gay marriage doesn’t make a difference in their vote — including 75 percent of independents, 76 percent of moderates, 81 percent of African Americans, and 65 percent of residents in the Midwest.

“From my distance, it looks more like a voting draw than anything else,” states Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.

In addition, the NBC/WSJ poll finds that a majority — 54 percent — would support a law in their state making same-sex marriage legal. Twenty four percent would actively support such a law, while 30 percent would favor it but not actively support it.

By comparison, a combined 40 percent state they would oppose such a law.

Asked to reconcile this majority supporting gay marriage in their states with North Carolina recently voting to for an amendment defining marriage as only between a man and a woman, McInturff states the respondents in this poll are different than the types of people who would vote in that kind of election.

The full NBC/WSJ poll — conducted May 16-20 of 1,000 adults, with an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points — will be released at 6:30 pm ET.

source : firstread.msnbc.msn.com

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source : www.realclearpolitics.com

President Obama and his allies continue to hold a sizable fund-raising advantage over Mitt Romney and his allies, including a 2-to-1 edge in available cash, according to the latest totals filed with the Federal Election Commission.

The numbers show that Team Obama (the campaign, the DNC, and the major pro-Obama Super PAC Priorities USA Action) had a combined $144 million cash on hand as of April 30, and it raised $41.7 million last month.

That’s compared with the $77.5 million in the bank that Team Romney (the campaign, the RNC, the pro-Romney Super PAC Restore Our Future, and the anti-Obama Super PAC American Crossroads) has reported, and it raised a total of $29.5 million in April.

But these fund-raising figures tell only part of the story.

Last week, the Romney campaign announced raising a combined $40 million with the RNC and other committees — essentially equalling the Obama-DNC haul — which spurred stories about how Team Romney was catching up to Team Obama. The Romney camp also stated it had $60 million in bank.

But the fund-raising totals the Romney camp filed with the FEC are short of those numbers.

So how did it come up with $40 million raised in April and $60 million in the bank?

The Romney campaign tells First Read that its Victory Fund brought in $17 million, but those numbers won’t be filed to the FEC until July. That $17 million — added to the campaign’s $11.7 million and RNC’s 11.4 million — gets you to $40 million.

And the Romney camp gets to $60 million in the bank when adding up the campaign’s cash on hand ($9 million), the RNC’s ($34.8 million), and that Victory Fund ($17 million).

Overall, when you add up the totals for the campaigns, political parties, and top Super PACS, here’s where we stand:Team Obama raised in April: $41.7 millionTeam Romney raised: $29.5 million (they are also counting that extra $17 million from the Victory Fund)

Team Obama cash on hand: $144 millionTeam Romney cash on hand: $77.5 million cash on hand

The components:Obama: $25.7 million raised, $115 million cash on handDNC: $14.4 million raised, $24.3M cash on handPriorities USA Action $1.6 million raisd, $4.7 cash on hand

Romney: $11.7 million raised, $9 million cash on handRNC: $11.4 million raised, $34.8 million cash on handRestore Our Future: $4.6 million raised, $8.2 million cash on handAmerican Crossroads $1.8 million raised, $25.5 million cash on hand

source : firstread.msnbc.msn.com

COLUMBIA, SC — Florida Sen. Marco Rubio on Saturday slammed President Barack Obama for being the most divisive figure in American politics.

“The man who this day occupies the White House and is running for president is a very different person,” Rubio stated at a high-profile GOP fundraiser, where he claimed Obama has abandoned the ideals he ran on in 2008. “We have not seen such a divisive figure in modern American history than we have over the last three and one-half years.”

Rubio delivered the dig in front of almost 1,000 South Carolina Republicans at the Silver Elephant Dinner, one of the state’s biggest gatherings of GOPers and whose keynote speaker in 2011 was former presidential candidate Rick Santorum.  The junior senator from the Sunshine State drew praise from the state’s most influential conservatives who took the stage before him, including Sens. Lindsey Graham and Jim DeMint and Gov. Nikki Haley.

Choosing to talk in the early primary say also gave rise to speculation about Rubio’s future political ambitions.  As a young and popular Hispanic senator from a swing state, he has found himself in the midst of vice presidential speculation.  But this event, along with his address earlier this month to a group of influential Iowa businesspeople, has fueled questions about the possibility of a Rubio presidential run.

“I did not know much about Marco other than all the hype that doesn’t do you justice,” Graham said. “I’ve got a chance to travel with Marco, he is the future of the Republican party like [Rep.] Tim [Scott].

While Rubio did not so much as mention Mitt Romney’s name, he did prove he could play attack dog, spending the top of his speech critiquing the president for failing to live up to his campaign promises.

“The president and his party’s view of America’s government and our lives is a failed one,” Rubio said. “It hasn’t worked. His ideas that sounded so good in the classrooms of Harvard and Yale haven’t really worked out well in the real world.”

But what may set him apart from other potential VP shortlisters is Rubio’s compelling personal narrative. His parents left Cuba for America, where his dad worked as a bartender and his mom a maid.  It was on Saturday nights, Rubio said, that his dad stood behind a bar.

“That journey behind that bar to this podium before you tonight, it’s my personal story as our family. But it happens to be our story as a nation,” he said. “Because you see every single one of us, no matter who you are here tonight, every single one of us can trace our history back to someone who made it the purpose of their lives to ensure that we would have the opportunities they never did.”

Rubio has denied any speculation about possible vice presidential ambitions, but his popularity outside his home say was on display Saturday night. The freshman senator drew applause equal only to that of DeMint, the tea party favorite and South Carolina native.

“In the end, as frustrated as sometimes we may get with the leadership of our own party on one issue or another, the logical home of the limited government, constitutional republican principles of our nation is the Republican party,” Rubio said. “The logical home for the defense of the free enterprise system is the Republican party. It is the only organization in modern American politics that is still capable at this moment of driving forward these concepts and these principles that are so important for our future.”

source : firstread.msnbc.msn.com

“But wait,” you protest. “How do you know Obama wrote that? How do you know he ever even saw it? Shut up!” Well, we all know that Obama is the exception to every rule, so maybe he’s the exception to this one too. Read Full Article ››

source : www.realclearpolitics.com

Forget a president’s first 100 days. Mitt Romney’s first tv ad of the general election, “Day One,” comes as close as anything in describing the most urgent priorities of a President Romney upon taking office.

The ad is running in five swing states, and the presumptive GOP nominee’s campaign is putting $1.3 million behind it; a Spanish-language analog is running in North Carolina, with a much smaller ad purchase behind it.

Nonetheless, Romney’s ad is meant to drive a three-point plan: 1. Approve the Keystone Pipeline, 2. Introduce tax reform, and 3. Begin dismantling and replacing President Obama’s health care law.

In short, Romney’s message is about jobs, taxes, energy and health care.

So what do we know about the specifics of Romney’s three-point plan?

Republicans, including Romney, have vocally criticized President Obama for rejecting an initial proposal by the TransCanada Corporation to build an oil pipeline through the central United States. The administration rejected the project out of environmental concerns and because it felt Republicans were rushing its approval of the project, at the expense of due diligence. (TransCanada has subsequently re-applied for a permit to build a pipeline along new routes.)

Romney invoking theexample is meant to address the issues of jobs and energy.

TransCanada and supporters of the pipeline — who range from Republicans in Congress to the organized labor community — contend the project would create at least 20,000 jobs. The project’s most ardent supporters claim these, in turn, would lead to additional job creation.

As for energy, it’s much more difficult to state what the effect of building the Keystone Pipeline would have on the price of oil. Its mere approval could conceivably diminish speculation that drives up oil prices, but gauging the direct impact is difficult. Moreover, the pipeline would take years to become fully operational and deliver excess supply to gas stations in the U.S.

“Taking advantage of our energy resources is one of my priorities,” Romney stated Friday in a conference call with supporters. Among his other plans for his first day in office, Romney stated he would also grant expanded permits for oil and gas exploration on federal lands. Romney said, for instance, he would authorize drilling on the East Coast’s Outer Continental Shelf.

The centerpiece of Romney’s plan would include a permanent, across-the-board reduction of 20 percent for all income tax brackets.

He’s also on the record supporting a number of other tax cuts, including maintaining current tax rates on investment income, eliminating the taxes on estates, slicing the corporate tax rate to 25 percent, and repealing the Alternative Minimum Tax, among other reforms.

The impact of these reforms on the rising national debt — something Romney routinely decries — is much more opaque, though.

Romney has stated eliminating some tax deductions, combined with economic growth and cuts in spending would make the impact of his tax plan deficit-neutral at a minimum.

“One thing I’m also going to to do is work with Congress to limit the deductions and exemptions and special deals that are in our tax code,” Romney stated on the conferencecall.

But the former Massachusetts governor hasn’t specified the exemptions or deductions he would eliminate beyond a choose few (for instance, the mortgage deductions associated with a second home). Romney has previously stated that the wealthy might shoulder a greater tax burden under his reforms, though he hasn’t stated how. (An analysis by the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center has suggested that might not be the case.) The Romney campaign also hasn’t provided a detailed enough tax plan in order to subject it to static or dynamic scoring of its impact on the deficit and debt.

As for the spending side, Romney’s website offers some additional details, but not enough to necessarily account for the total impact of his plan — either on jobs, or the deficit.

The “issues” section of Romney’s website includes an additional “Day One” promise: to send Congress a bill slashing non-defense discretionary spending byfive percent across-the-board.

Other parts of Romney’s site detail areas he would cut, and the savings associated with each of those cuts. Those savings include the elimination of subsidies to programs like the National Endowment for the Arts, and cuts in subsidies to Amtrak or the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.

“There are items that I like that I will stop funding,” Romney explained during the call.

Romney’s new ad calls for not just the repeal of “ObamaCare,” but its replacement, as well.

If part or all of the law were granted to stand following the Supreme Court’s ruling next month, Romney would have some options to undo the law on his first day in office, but they would be limited.

The former Massachusetts governor has stated his ultimate goal is to return health care decisions to individual states, and create incentives for more efficient health care delivery.

Romney repeated his promise to issue a waiver to states, allowing them to duck some of the requirements of health care reform that conservatives find most onerous. But many other parts of the law would remain in effect, and would require legislative action to both enact a repeal of ObamaCare and a subsequent replacement. That could conceivably pass the House if it were to remain in Republican control, but unless Republicans were to somehow win a 60-seat majority in the Senate this fall, the GOP would need to attract Democratic support for Romney’s alternative.

There are other things Romney stated he would do on his first day, among them labeling China a currency manipulator and putting a hold on regulations enacted by the Obama administration.

Democrats have contested Romney’s ad, with the Obama campaign labeling it as full of “empty promises.”

“We know why Mitt Romney didn’t keep his promises- his business experience wasn’t in strengthening companies and creating jobs for long-term economic growth. It was in reaping quick profits for himself and his investors at the expense of workers and communities,” stated Lis Smith, a spokeswoman for the president’s re-election. “These are the values that he wants to bring to the White House by giving more budget-busting tax cuts to the wealthy and letting Wall Street write its own rules—the same formula that benefited a few, but crashed our economy and punished the middle class.”

A Democratic super PAC, American Bridge 21st Century, also produced a parody ad concluding of Romney’s first-day plans: “We’ll pass.”

source : firstread.msnbc.msn.com

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source : www.realclearpolitics.com