Australia's trade to get even better
The international economy may be going through its toughest times since the depths of the global financial crisis, but new research suggests Australia will enjoy a bumper trade performance over the next 15 years.
Global banking group HSBC is forecasting that Australian trade will grow by a big 129 per cent by 2025, outpacing the world average figure of 73 per cent, and even exceeding Asian growth as a whole of 96 per cent.
The doubling of Australian trade will bring merchandise trade volumes to $US702.5 billion ($A707 billion) by 2025 from $US347 billion ($A350 billion) currently, it says.
The strongest trade period in this 15-year time frame will be in the next five years.
“It’s considerable when you compare it to what the likely sort of the global growth story is going to be,” HSBC Bank Australia head of commercial banking James Hogan told AAP.
Australia is already benefiting from the ideal terms of trade in 140 years.
Still, Treasurer Wayne Swan has again warned that despite Australia’s fundamental strengths, the economy and the budget “will not remain untouched from global instability”.
The revamp of the eurozone bailout fund, designed to counter the EU’s financial crisis, was set back when Slovakian politicians voted against it, but the country’s leaders stated they would try to pass the bill in another vote at a later date.
The 16 other eurozone members have approved the changes to the bailout fund, but it requires the backing of all 17 eurozone countries.
“The challenges facing the world economy are the most severe since the global financial crisis,” Mr Swan told parliament in a ministerial statement on Wednesday.
“There is a crisis of confidence in the capacity of political institutions in the United States and Europe to deliver the policy responses required. That’s why I will be making clear to my G20 colleagues that urgent action is needed if we are to avoid a return to the global economic dark age of 2008.”
Mr Swan will join his G20 counterparts in Paris on Friday and Saturday in making the final preparations for the G20 leaders’ meeting in Cannes in November.
The boss of one the nation’s largest banks concurred that Australia was “clearly affected” by what was happening in Europe, but its geographic and trade connections to Asia had ensured a healthy fiscal position.
“That really gives us the tools and wherewithal to reduce interest rates, should that be required,” Westpac CEO Gail Kelly told Macquarie Radio.
Westpac’s chief economist, Bill Evans, is still expecting an interest rate cut by the end of the year, particularly after last week’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board meeting concluded that an improved inflation outlook had increased the scope for a rate reduction should it prove necessary.
“When central banks make such statements, a rate cut is a reasonable possibility,” Mr Evans said, releasing the latest Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment survey.
It showed a minor 0.4 per cent improvement in sentiment in October, but at an index of 97.2 points, below the key 100 level, meaning there are still more pessimists than optimists.
Mr Evans stated there were conflicting forces during the past month that would have affected confidence, with financial market volatility on one side and the RBA’s marked change in rhetoric on the other.
Crucial to the outlook for rates will be Thursday’s labour force report for September and the September quarter inflation figures due on October 26.
source : www.wabusinessnews.com.au
Related News:
- $A gets a boost from German growth data
- $A falls after weak trade price figures
- China’s Youku.com Acquires Trade Lead For CNY112.9 Million
- Jets, Broncos complete Tebow trade again
- Victoria Beckham still has a fan in Mel C
- Brazil Considering Import Restrictions Of Chinese-made Mobile Phones
- Aust dollar dips to 101.6 US cents
- Joanna Lumley shouldn’t be required to curb the live animal trade
- Sources: Clippers, Hornets concur on Paul trade
- Source: Howard’s wish list limited to 4 teams
Details :
Submited at Wednesday, October 12th, 2011 at 10:00 pm on Business by chuck
Comment RSS 2.0 - leave a comment - trackback